Sunday, August 10, 2008

Selling the Drama

The market in the last few weeks has a bottom. Although highly volatile, the general trend was pretty much a flat line for the last 30 days. Flat lines do not make money  and that is why some fluctuation  is necessary.

The S&P bottomed on July 15th at 1215 and had a triple top since that date at around 1280-something.

It was mind blowing  to watch  CNBC or read the headlines on Market Watch & Reuters. The same anchors, analysts and reporters would flip the story upside down from one day to another, heck even during the same trading day.

The staggering drop in oil price was primarily credited for this turnaround but it is worth noting how the media's manipulation of news contributed to the up and down pattern in the S&P chart.

On the morning of the 16th, it was Doom's Day, Armageddon, the End of the World... The S&P was at a two-year low and the Reuters' headline read: " Wall St set to open lower; CPI data in focus"
The trap was set and the retail investor sold at open. The market on that day moved up big. Reuters' story this afternoon changed to: "US STOCKS-Wall St soars on banks' best day in 16 yr, oil's drop". The S&P gained more than 30 points that day. Same story goes on for the rest of the week. You can check the financial headlines history on yahoo.

First top busted on July 24th:
From Reuter: "Home sales at 10-year low, jobless claims jump"
As if this is news. I thought that was priced in the stock already. What a con.

History repeats itself Same story on the 29th. Morning: doom's day
End of day Result? 266 points up for the Dow.

Second Top busted on July 31st:
The reason: Economic worries. Wow that's news!

Then on August 5th, economic worries are forgotten as the Feds kept rates steady. That was expected anyways, so what's the news?? No news there, just a reason to move the market and give some value to those options spreads.

Third top busted on August 7th:
Once again financials, jobs and the whole economy is bad. Didn't we know that on the 5th?

The next day was as if nothing happened. Dow was up more than 300 points.

and the tape goes on...

The same news has been recycled over and over again. Oil Down, Stocks up. Economic worries after a couple of days bring stocks back down.
WE GET IT! just price it in and move on...

It is clear that things do not change overnight unless there is a cataclysmic event, an act of God, a massive terrorist attack or a bubble burst.
So since it's none of the above that occured, what is it?
Is it Groundhog day or is it that mutual secret agreement between the media and the market makers that there should always be a climactic headline every day that moves the market no matter the direction?

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